singhsa3
04-30 05:11 PM
All,
I am planning to write a letter to USCIS and DOS , suggesting the visa cut off dates for India. Kindly help me develop a model. I will send this letter over the weekend and also post over here.
So far I have the following rational (Of course , I will word them properly).
I have grouped applicants in the following groups
BEC, PERM ROW and PERM Non Row Countries. I then will estimate the visa usage by each categories using sources like FLCdata and DHS publications. Along the way I will make some assumption but the results should be realistic.
Facts
1. Per DOL , As of April'06 50K BEC labors were certified. Certification rates were 50% of labor processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Per DOL, as of Sep'07 362,000 BEC labor were processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
2. Per DHS, total EB (2, 3, 4 and 5 only) visas issued in FY’07 were 135,479 and FY’06 was 122,121.
3. FLC data center indicates that between March’05 and Oct’05, ~6000 PERM applications were filled and certified.
4. Per FLC data, 46,340 ROW PERM applications were certified in FY’06 and 47,251 ROW applications were certified in FY’07.
Assumptions
1. Each labor application uses in 2.2 visas.
2. Based on Fact 1 and Fact 2, let us assumed that in total 180,000 BEC labors were certified between March'05 and Sep'07 by BEC.
3. Total BEC visas requirements 180,000*2.2= 396,000
4. NIW applications are negligible.
5. Retrogressed countries account for 50% of visas used.
Calculations
Scenario 1: Visa processing time is Zero
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(47,251+6000)x2.2=18,306
3. BEC visas remaining as on 10/01/08= 396,000-20,173-18,306= 357,521
Scenario 2: Visa processing time is one year. Note: it affects only the applications certified within the preceding year.
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20,173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(6000)x2.2=122,259
3. BEC visas (And NOT labor) remaining as on 10/01/08 = 396,000-122,259= 273,741.
What it means:
BEC contained labors from both retrogressed and non-retrogressed countries. Thus, in FY’08 and FY’09 visa consumptions will be attributed to BEC mainly. Once this backlog is cleared, the normal consumption (Supply = Demand) should resume. But it will also mean that there will always be 2-3 years wait.
Conclusion:
Suggested Cut-off dates for India as on 10/01/2008: ??? TBD.
Last update:
Time 11.32 AM ET , 05/01/08.
I am planning to write a letter to USCIS and DOS , suggesting the visa cut off dates for India. Kindly help me develop a model. I will send this letter over the weekend and also post over here.
So far I have the following rational (Of course , I will word them properly).
I have grouped applicants in the following groups
BEC, PERM ROW and PERM Non Row Countries. I then will estimate the visa usage by each categories using sources like FLCdata and DHS publications. Along the way I will make some assumption but the results should be realistic.
Facts
1. Per DOL , As of April'06 50K BEC labors were certified. Certification rates were 50% of labor processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
Per DOL, as of Sep'07 362,000 BEC labor were processed (certified, denied or withdrawn).
2. Per DHS, total EB (2, 3, 4 and 5 only) visas issued in FY’07 were 135,479 and FY’06 was 122,121.
3. FLC data center indicates that between March’05 and Oct’05, ~6000 PERM applications were filled and certified.
4. Per FLC data, 46,340 ROW PERM applications were certified in FY’06 and 47,251 ROW applications were certified in FY’07.
Assumptions
1. Each labor application uses in 2.2 visas.
2. Based on Fact 1 and Fact 2, let us assumed that in total 180,000 BEC labors were certified between March'05 and Sep'07 by BEC.
3. Total BEC visas requirements 180,000*2.2= 396,000
4. NIW applications are negligible.
5. Retrogressed countries account for 50% of visas used.
Calculations
Scenario 1: Visa processing time is Zero
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(47,251+6000)x2.2=18,306
3. BEC visas remaining as on 10/01/08= 396,000-20,173-18,306= 357,521
Scenario 2: Visa processing time is one year. Note: it affects only the applications certified within the preceding year.
1. BEC visas used in Fy'06 : = 122,121- (46,340)x 2.2 = 20,173
2. BEC visas issued in FY'07 : 135,459-(6000)x2.2=122,259
3. BEC visas (And NOT labor) remaining as on 10/01/08 = 396,000-122,259= 273,741.
What it means:
BEC contained labors from both retrogressed and non-retrogressed countries. Thus, in FY’08 and FY’09 visa consumptions will be attributed to BEC mainly. Once this backlog is cleared, the normal consumption (Supply = Demand) should resume. But it will also mean that there will always be 2-3 years wait.
Conclusion:
Suggested Cut-off dates for India as on 10/01/2008: ??? TBD.
Last update:
Time 11.32 AM ET , 05/01/08.
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mrajatish
03-24 04:31 PM
I like the idea - any takers, I am ready to work with that person.
ita
01-23 08:30 PM
Suggestions.
1 Since the main reason behind the retrogression is the lack of Visa numbers I feel it would be a great idea to process the 485 applications , make a decision on the case and let the applicant know about the decision though the actual card can be mailed when the Visa Numbers become available . This would reduce the anxiety on behalf of the applicants and would also give USCIS ample time to process all the applications.
2. Yearly extension of EAD/AP is getting so expensive especially when one doesn't know how many years we have to keep doing the extensions.
It's a known fact that except for the July 07 bulletin EB3 India PD has hardly touched year 2002 since Dec 2004.
Some of the EB3 I folks with a 2005 PD, that I know have been issued one year extension on their EAD though they applied for the extensions in mid July(2008).
Example of EAD/AP anxiety:
AP document says that it should be used for emergency travel. This rule on AP
was formed at a time when 485 processing would take not more than 6 months.
In the present scenario with 485 processing taking years I think a person using EAD would end up using AP many times . Officers at the POE sometimes remind us the rule that AP should be used only in emergency and some of them give the person hard time if they believe the travel was not for emergency purpose.
I guess we are supposed to have a proof of emergency travel.
Though AC21 lets one change jobs 180 days after filing the 485 application with the I40 approved for more than 180 days when reentering the country some of the officer(s) sometimes ask the person if they are still with the same company that filed their GC.I don't know yet what they would do/say if one had changed their jobs because the people who were asked this question did not change their employer at that time. But the fact that they ask us this question makes us apprehensive about changing jobs.
With so many rules where most of them were formed long back it's making applicant's life increasingly tough as the applicants themselves don't want to do anything that would be construed/fall on the wrong side of the rules.We are forced to watch our steps multiple times even in the case of simple things like job changes,travelout of country etc.
When I repeatedly read about how USICS is inundated with 485 applications due to July 2007 bulletin I keep wondering why USCIS would want to increase it's work load every year with all these EAD/AP renewal applications.
Suggestion
Once upon a time when the 485 processing took like 6 months, EAD/AP had different meaning. In the present scenario when not many of us know how many more yeras it's going to be before (especially EB3 I folks) we get our GreenCard I would think it would be better to use the pending 485 application to change jobs and reenter the country.
This would save money/time for the applicant and lot of time for USICS.
Thank you.
1 Since the main reason behind the retrogression is the lack of Visa numbers I feel it would be a great idea to process the 485 applications , make a decision on the case and let the applicant know about the decision though the actual card can be mailed when the Visa Numbers become available . This would reduce the anxiety on behalf of the applicants and would also give USCIS ample time to process all the applications.
2. Yearly extension of EAD/AP is getting so expensive especially when one doesn't know how many years we have to keep doing the extensions.
It's a known fact that except for the July 07 bulletin EB3 India PD has hardly touched year 2002 since Dec 2004.
Some of the EB3 I folks with a 2005 PD, that I know have been issued one year extension on their EAD though they applied for the extensions in mid July(2008).
Example of EAD/AP anxiety:
AP document says that it should be used for emergency travel. This rule on AP
was formed at a time when 485 processing would take not more than 6 months.
In the present scenario with 485 processing taking years I think a person using EAD would end up using AP many times . Officers at the POE sometimes remind us the rule that AP should be used only in emergency and some of them give the person hard time if they believe the travel was not for emergency purpose.
I guess we are supposed to have a proof of emergency travel.
Though AC21 lets one change jobs 180 days after filing the 485 application with the I40 approved for more than 180 days when reentering the country some of the officer(s) sometimes ask the person if they are still with the same company that filed their GC.I don't know yet what they would do/say if one had changed their jobs because the people who were asked this question did not change their employer at that time. But the fact that they ask us this question makes us apprehensive about changing jobs.
With so many rules where most of them were formed long back it's making applicant's life increasingly tough as the applicants themselves don't want to do anything that would be construed/fall on the wrong side of the rules.We are forced to watch our steps multiple times even in the case of simple things like job changes,travelout of country etc.
When I repeatedly read about how USICS is inundated with 485 applications due to July 2007 bulletin I keep wondering why USCIS would want to increase it's work load every year with all these EAD/AP renewal applications.
Suggestion
Once upon a time when the 485 processing took like 6 months, EAD/AP had different meaning. In the present scenario when not many of us know how many more yeras it's going to be before (especially EB3 I folks) we get our GreenCard I would think it would be better to use the pending 485 application to change jobs and reenter the country.
This would save money/time for the applicant and lot of time for USICS.
Thank you.
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lj_rr
07-31 04:15 PM
Any inputs?
more...
diptam
01-26 10:45 AM
If you want to track how fast are they processing - you have to go by "Notice Date" because that's the day they first saw your Application. If you want to charge AC21 or calculate iVisa Bulletion's Retrogression do by "Receipt Date" for calculating "180 days Portability" etc....
In the "Pre-July 2nd world" those 2 dates used to vary by 1 or 2 days so no one used to care.
Well - so NSC is doing I-140 for Apr 23rd and Texas is July 21st... I would have got my freedom by now if i had filed I-140 at Texas :) Another good thing in this Bulletin Vermont H1b extension processing have moved a lot - from Apr 23rd to Oct 1st 2007 - wow !!!
Good Luck folks!!
In terms of processing dates, which date is relevant?
USCIS Received Date: E.g., July 25, 2007
OR
USCIS Notice Date: E.g., Sept 12, 2007?
Thanks.
GG_007
In the "Pre-July 2nd world" those 2 dates used to vary by 1 or 2 days so no one used to care.
Well - so NSC is doing I-140 for Apr 23rd and Texas is July 21st... I would have got my freedom by now if i had filed I-140 at Texas :) Another good thing in this Bulletin Vermont H1b extension processing have moved a lot - from Apr 23rd to Oct 1st 2007 - wow !!!
Good Luck folks!!
In terms of processing dates, which date is relevant?
USCIS Received Date: E.g., July 25, 2007
OR
USCIS Notice Date: E.g., Sept 12, 2007?
Thanks.
GG_007
dealsnet
01-13 10:06 AM
Are you jocking Chandrakanth ? ;);););):eek::eek::cool::cool:
I think Lawyers have a system where they can send emails to the service centers in a particular format, the receiving software at USCIS automatically parses the email and assigns the case to officers.
Or, if it has been a long time since it is current try contacting the Ombudsman.
I think Lawyers have a system where they can send emails to the service centers in a particular format, the receiving software at USCIS automatically parses the email and assigns the case to officers.
Or, if it has been a long time since it is current try contacting the Ombudsman.
more...
kumarc123
05-11 09:50 AM
I think the only language that US understands is lawsuit otherwise everything is unfair. You can see that is why there is a lawsuit culture here. Every agency govt and non govt tries to cheat you be it car rental agency, be it movers be it USCIS. By default everything is taken moral in US unless proven by lawsuit or dictated by law.
Even if we loose lawsuit, it will make impact in the sense that the issue will get a lot of publicity. I am willing to donate to IV but not for nothing, not for flowers, not protests not for this forum either, I am willing to donate if there is some rigid action to be taken like a lawsuit.
I agree with you 100% over there, I am up for a lawsuit and a rally. Problem is, so many of the members here are all talk and no walk (Not IV Core members, no disrespect to them). I have sent so many letters,made soo many calls, specially at the time when Lofgreen was talking about recapture of visa numbers. In the end I got frusturated.
Illegals are better than us, imagine if EAD had not happened? A lot of members would be united to fight the cause.
Unification is very important. Above all doing something big rather than just talking about it!
Even if we loose lawsuit, it will make impact in the sense that the issue will get a lot of publicity. I am willing to donate to IV but not for nothing, not for flowers, not protests not for this forum either, I am willing to donate if there is some rigid action to be taken like a lawsuit.
I agree with you 100% over there, I am up for a lawsuit and a rally. Problem is, so many of the members here are all talk and no walk (Not IV Core members, no disrespect to them). I have sent so many letters,made soo many calls, specially at the time when Lofgreen was talking about recapture of visa numbers. In the end I got frusturated.
Illegals are better than us, imagine if EAD had not happened? A lot of members would be united to fight the cause.
Unification is very important. Above all doing something big rather than just talking about it!
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pd_recapturing
05-23 01:45 PM
Please go through this (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=5192)and reanalyze if you really want to go to H1 from EAD ....
more...
leonqiu
06-14 09:06 PM
What do you mean by AP and EAD delayed? Once you have applied for your 485 and all things considered OK, you should get your AP and EAD. If dates retrogress again, you will have to keep renewing your AP and EAD till you get your GC. How long it will take to get AP and EAD? Right now, I believe it will take a lot longer, maybe upto 6 months given the load of apps. they will receive.
looks like the sooner you submit the package, the better !!! even if I don't harbor any hope to get my GC before mid-2008.
Status:
PD: May 2006
I-140 approved.
EB-2
looks like the sooner you submit the package, the better !!! even if I don't harbor any hope to get my GC before mid-2008.
Status:
PD: May 2006
I-140 approved.
EB-2
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lvaka
07-17 06:51 PM
Thanks a lot IV Core. I am sure this is a very small contribution for the cause. Just to start with here is my $100 one time contribution.
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Order Details - Jul 17, 2007 7:16 PM EDT
Google Order #663744711461021
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cooldude0807
12-12 12:17 PM
How about Montgomery, so that folks from Mobile can also show up for the meet & it will be a good center point....
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pd_recapturing
11-05 08:11 PM
This might be a serious issue. Take an infopass and dig it. Did you use AC21 by any chance?
more...
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s416504
12-04 02:23 PM
I think EAD doesn't give us any STATUS. EAD gives us authorization to work.
We can live legally with pending AOS status. And due to AC21 protection, AOS can't be denied.
I think ashkam is missing the main point here. You are on EAD which is based on an employment based GC application where you have to be employed all the time. You (EAD and people who are on H1) are not supposed to tell that are unemployed! Duh!
A people who are on H1 (same goes to people with EAD based on a employment based GC) and out of payroll for more than 28 days (not sure about the exact # of days, some says 42 days), you are out of status.
So think twice before you disclose that you are unemployed.
We can live legally with pending AOS status. And due to AC21 protection, AOS can't be denied.
I think ashkam is missing the main point here. You are on EAD which is based on an employment based GC application where you have to be employed all the time. You (EAD and people who are on H1) are not supposed to tell that are unemployed! Duh!
A people who are on H1 (same goes to people with EAD based on a employment based GC) and out of payroll for more than 28 days (not sure about the exact # of days, some says 42 days), you are out of status.
So think twice before you disclose that you are unemployed.
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Raju
07-04 09:32 PM
My state in four lines
1) Came to US on F-1 Visa, never completed my masters
2) Shifted to H-1B and i have been with the same client and havent been to India for four years.
3) Now i am doing part time MBA from a top Ivy league school and i have $40,000 in loans from my MBA. i have not finished it as yet.
4) Applied for labor and priority date is Jan 2007 and i wanted to apply for 1-485 and AP and Skip H-1B stamping
But because of the july 2nd i cant do that anymore and i will have to go to H-1B stamping. I wonder what will happen if my stamping gets rejected. If dont attend classes for 4 months. My student loan will start asking for monthly payments. I am in a quagmire.
But still i have decided that i will go to India in any case and if payments become overdue for more months. I dont know what to do.
I had so many hoped on the current numbers . Any idea guys what can i do?
Dont panick man. Your should not have a problem with H1 stamping!
1) Came to US on F-1 Visa, never completed my masters
2) Shifted to H-1B and i have been with the same client and havent been to India for four years.
3) Now i am doing part time MBA from a top Ivy league school and i have $40,000 in loans from my MBA. i have not finished it as yet.
4) Applied for labor and priority date is Jan 2007 and i wanted to apply for 1-485 and AP and Skip H-1B stamping
But because of the july 2nd i cant do that anymore and i will have to go to H-1B stamping. I wonder what will happen if my stamping gets rejected. If dont attend classes for 4 months. My student loan will start asking for monthly payments. I am in a quagmire.
But still i have decided that i will go to India in any case and if payments become overdue for more months. I dont know what to do.
I had so many hoped on the current numbers . Any idea guys what can i do?
Dont panick man. Your should not have a problem with H1 stamping!
more...
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chanduv23
12-09 08:17 AM
Good morning
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kaisersose
10-28 11:40 PM
We recieved EADs 3 weeks back and I am planning to apply SSN for my wife and kid.
Can anyone let me know what documents are required to show up at SSN office while applying SSN.
Thanks,
Sury
You got an EAD for your kid? What is the minimum age for a kid to be eligible for an EAD?
The SSN card will contain a restriction saying "authorized for work only" which would mean the kid should have reached the min age for eligibility to work.
Can anyone let me know what documents are required to show up at SSN office while applying SSN.
Thanks,
Sury
You got an EAD for your kid? What is the minimum age for a kid to be eligible for an EAD?
The SSN card will contain a restriction saying "authorized for work only" which would mean the kid should have reached the min age for eligibility to work.
more...
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priti8888
10-17 07:17 PM
In conservative view, though both are in same field, both are not similar occupation becuse one is "engineer" and other is "manager". Engineer skills and responsibilites and duties are different than manager. So it will not qualify to AC21 portability. For similar occupation classification, both should be in same family in Onet or it should have first 2 numbers in the code should be same.
thats not true..AC 21 does'nt deny a promotion..Since it takes over 5-7 years to get GC approval, most of my friends got their GC when they were project managers/product managers but started as applications/network engineers.
thats not true..AC 21 does'nt deny a promotion..Since it takes over 5-7 years to get GC approval, most of my friends got their GC when they were project managers/product managers but started as applications/network engineers.
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AjP
July 27th, 2005, 03:26 PM
ok I'm not as good as Freddy (I think :) ) but here is my 2c
Manual adjustments in RAW Converter:
Temperature 6100
Tint +13
Exposure +0.65
Shadows 5
Brightness 50
Contrasat +50
Saturation +26
Curves 6 points
input 2 output 9
input 27 output 22
input 63 output 63
input 140 output 140
input 206 output 189
input 255 output 250
Photoshop:
Shadows/Hightlights
Shadows:
Amount 23%
Tonal Width: 29%
Radius 91px
Highlights:
Amount 44%
Tonal Width: 42%
Radius 47px
Adjustments:
Color Correction: +21
Midtond Contrast: -10
Unsharp Mask:
Amount 86%
Radius 1.0 px
Threshold: 4
Smart Sharpen:
Amount: 67%
Radius: 1.8
Remove: Lens Blur
removed dark spot, kinda get on my nerves :)
http://st.a-j-p.net/pic/gparrraw.jpg
Manual adjustments in RAW Converter:
Temperature 6100
Tint +13
Exposure +0.65
Shadows 5
Brightness 50
Contrasat +50
Saturation +26
Curves 6 points
input 2 output 9
input 27 output 22
input 63 output 63
input 140 output 140
input 206 output 189
input 255 output 250
Photoshop:
Shadows/Hightlights
Shadows:
Amount 23%
Tonal Width: 29%
Radius 91px
Highlights:
Amount 44%
Tonal Width: 42%
Radius 47px
Adjustments:
Color Correction: +21
Midtond Contrast: -10
Unsharp Mask:
Amount 86%
Radius 1.0 px
Threshold: 4
Smart Sharpen:
Amount: 67%
Radius: 1.8
Remove: Lens Blur
removed dark spot, kinda get on my nerves :)
http://st.a-j-p.net/pic/gparrraw.jpg
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whiteStallion
06-16 06:48 PM
I am not sure about six months ... That is only when you file 485 and want to use AC21 to continue your GC process.
Once your I-140 is approved, then you lock the PD from that moment itself.
I140 + 6 months = Change your employer, file new PERM & then new I140 but you get to keep your old PD from old PERM. Is it not the case ?
Once your I-140 is approved, then you lock the PD from that moment itself.
I140 + 6 months = Change your employer, file new PERM & then new I140 but you get to keep your old PD from old PERM. Is it not the case ?
hianupam
04-16 01:36 PM
Trust me. That's a move you will surely enjoy....I moved in the opposite direction.......Houston to Allentown
Houston is the best. Lovely weather, Really "BIG" city so you can get or do whatever you want. The metro system is not the best but if you only need it to commute to work(downtown) then no problem. By the way they don't give a crap about driver's licenses in houston, too many applications. They'll give you 6yrs easily on ur license.
Thanks. Everybody else that I talk to seems to make a big deal about the commute downtown. Actually It is my wife who will be facing the commute. I get to work from home mostly when I am not travelling.
How's allentown treating you?
Houston is the best. Lovely weather, Really "BIG" city so you can get or do whatever you want. The metro system is not the best but if you only need it to commute to work(downtown) then no problem. By the way they don't give a crap about driver's licenses in houston, too many applications. They'll give you 6yrs easily on ur license.
Thanks. Everybody else that I talk to seems to make a big deal about the commute downtown. Actually It is my wife who will be facing the commute. I get to work from home mostly when I am not travelling.
How's allentown treating you?
harrydr
07-12 11:40 AM
Please advice on the issue above as i want to take this route to work 2 jobs. Thanks.
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